From the continuing rise of tablet devices to the daily-deals craze
and the return of the Internet IPO, 2011 has been a transformative year
for technology.
The pace of change has
become blisteringly fast, with traditional industries -- bookstores,
video-rental chains, newspapers -- crumbling more quickly than we could
have imagined.
Predicting what will
happen in 2012, therefore, is a shot in the dark: A year is virtually a
lifetime in the digital era. And yet we can at least make a guess at
what will happen in the early part of next year simply by looking at the
trends that are shaping the latter half of this year.
Here's my best estimate of some of the innovation we'll see in 2012:
1. Touch computing
New input methods will be
the dominant trend of 2012. Tablet computers such as the iPad might
seem like a nice alternative to desktop and laptop computers, but I
believe they're more than that: They're replacements. Just as the
command line (remember that?) gave way to graphical user interfaces, so
the mouse will be superseded by touchscreens.
The signs are obvious:
Windows 8 and Mac OS X Lion, the latest desktop operating systems,
borrow heavy from their mobile counterparts. These new interfaces
essentially impose a touchscreen-inspired interface over the traditional
desktop environment.
Over time, this half-step
will become a whole one, and mobile operating systems will dominate.
The transition won't be complete by the end of 2012, but we'll be much
further down the path, and using computer mice much less often.
2. Social gestures
In the social media realm, social gestures appear to be the leading trend of 2012. Launched by Facebook in September,
this so-called "frictionless sharing" functionality removes the need to
click a button to share media with your friends. Instead, everything
you listen to, read or watch is automatically posted to your profile
once you approve the relevant app.
If you've seen apps such as Spotify or Social Reader in your Facebook news feed, you're already aware of these features.
The trend makes sense
for social networks: With 800 million people already on Facebook, its
growth is bound to slow. But if sharing becomes automatic, the volume of
content on Facebook will grow at an accelerated pace. There's a big
problem, however: Users may be "creeped out" by all this automated sharing of their Web activity and grow suspicious of the apps using it.
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