Apple Techno! CES will be the kickoff for 2012's hot tech trends

To a tech columnist, the new year is the time to pack a suitcase for Las Vegas and dust off the crystal ball and take a stab at what's on the horizon. Vegas is where the tech biz congregates for the annual International Consumer Electronics Show, a showcase for the latest innovations in smart televisions, tablets, digital cameras and a whole lot more.


But not everything is revealed at CES. Apple never attends in any official capacity, though its activities from afar have been known to overshadow the Vegas proceedings. The 2007 introduction of the iPhone took place during CES, just not at CES.

At this year's show and well beyond, I expect that we'll see a continuation of major trends that took significant leaps in 2011: consumers growing comfortable with cloud-based services, voice controls and gesture-driven interfaces, fast 4G mobile networks, mobile payment options, ultrabook computers. You'll probably also see see further innovation in such technologies as glasses-free 3-D and augmented reality, though I'm not counting on either making a huge splash in 2012.


Here is what you can expect:

Windows 8

Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, a regular at CES, will be addressing the throngs again, though for one final time. Microsoft has announced that this is its last CES. I'm not expecting much new from Ballmer regarding the company's ubiquitous operating system. That said, Windows 8 is coming in 2012, with a "beta" promised in February, and the first full versions likely hitting later in the year. Windows 8 should make things very interesting, and not just for what we think of as traditional keyboard/mouse-based personal computers but for touch-capable tablets as well.

The Web is already abuzz over reports that the Taiwanese computer maker Asus plans to bring out a convertible Windows 8 machine that swivels from an ultrabook to a tablet.

Next-gen video game consoles

Video game junkies may be hanging on to what Ballmer has to say about the next version of Xbox. But my expectation is Microsoft won't reveal too much until midyear at the E3 tradeshow, and a new console might not arrive by the 2012 holidays.

While Nintendo will be showing its new Wii U at CES, Sony's next PlayStation (PS4) is more likely a 2013 bet. On the handheld side, Sony's Vita, the touch-based successor to its PlayStation Portable, recently went on sale in Japan and is slated to reach the U.S. in late February.

What is Cupertino cooking up?

Predicting what Apple will do next has long been a spectator sport. Much of the latest speculation is on the iPad 3 which, depending on who you believe, arrives sooner rather than later.

I'd love to see Apple's tablet get the spectacular supersharp screen that's on the iPhone. But that "Retina Display" might challenge the long battery life that the iPad 2 currently delivers. Rumors also hint at lower-priced and/or smaller-screen iPads (I'm not holding my breath), and iPads with superior cameras, which seems likely.

It's difficult to dismiss reports surrounding Apple TV, not the set-top box Apple already sells but an actual Apple-branded television. Regarding an integrated television that is simple to use, Apple's late CEO, Steve Jobs, told biographer Walter Isaacson, "I finally cracked it." Digitimes out of Asia — which frankly doesn't always get these things right — has indicated that Apple is targeting the second or third quarter of 2012 for the introduction of an iTV product. I do know that some of the traditional TV makers that I have talked to expect Apple to jump into the fray at some point. When, if at all in 2012, remains the big question.

The battle for third

It's practically a given that the iPhone and handsets based on Android will resume the battle for the top spot among smartphones. But it will be interesting to watch Research In Motion's BlackBerrys and Microsoft's Windows Phone duke it out for third. By all accounts, 2011 was an absolutely rotten year for RIM, and the company recently announced it would not bring out new BlackBerrys until late in 2012. Yikes. Keep an eye on new Windows Phones from Nokia to see if Microsoft can capture meaningful market share and Nokia can reinvigorate a brand that has faltered lately.

A camera to watch

Last year, Silicon Valley start-up Lytro unveiled the Lytro Light Field Camera, an unconventional, pocket-size point-and-shoot that takes "living pictures." What does that mean? For one thing, you can continue to focus pictures even after snapping an image. Lytro promises excellent low-light performance. (I'm eager to try it out.) Lytro is taking preorders on the camera, which costs $399 and up; delivery is promised soon.

For all that I expect tech-wise in 2012, count on plenty of surprises.